Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.521525 10.021700 11.671315 13.614779 15.836461 18.291445 21.203917
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.155321 8.163312 10.604174 13.765589 17.725154 22.491570 28.631315
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.500260 6.645958 9.495124 13.498560 18.912042 25.902545 35.522753
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.297842 5.376850 8.367798 12.885622 19.415412 28.367508 41.389433
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.503773 4.472130 7.518001 12.425369 19.944203 30.797552 47.345854
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.041929 3.958504 7.122230 12.514265 21.199416 34.294745 55.061845
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.642018 3.447371 6.618595 12.318914 21.939364 37.039255 61.858946
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.456266 3.273733 6.639062 12.963713 24.057308 42.049881 72.494441
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.253524 3.018020 6.460841 13.219805 25.526427 46.124597 81.953605
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.063373 2.741867 6.190902 13.257010 26.595607 49.603680 90.687644
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.907815 2.502552 5.947312 13.297404 27.652363 53.120592 99.717505
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.851074 2.477595 6.135722 14.198882 30.376771 59.721460 114.440985
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.766421 2.371321 6.145821 14.767282 32.579765 65.670522 128.647180
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.689306 2.266787 6.144828 15.317849 34.817597 71.887773 143.832719
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.581414 2.049698 5.844404 15.177625 35.653430 75.577600 154.735925
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.467571 1.780246 5.363510 14.556461 35.416493 77.198001 161.928057
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.380414 1.562922 4.967948 14.066499 35.388220 79.195812 169.940285
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.330840 1.451772 4.830352 14.174487 36.671056 83.882375 183.410324
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.277946 1.310482 4.579765 13.960016 37.198008 87.063402 194.134632
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.260370 1.294095 4.686440 14.680741 39.950605 95.040747 214.876694
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.232718 1.228793 4.633279 14.966885 41.698576 101.011247 231.903998
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.202728 1.142666 4.497919 15.008594 42.859097 105.802124 246.803609
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.176889 1.064241 4.370730 15.053721 44.029257 110.690347 262.190160